Christianity's Center Shifts to the Global South
In 1910 two-thirds of the world's Christians lived in Europe; by 2050 most will live in Africa and Latin America
Quick facts
- Europe's share, 1910
- 66% of world's Christians
- Sub-Saharan Africa's projected share, 2050
- 38%
- Global South share today
- About 61% of world's Christians
- Key driver
- Higher birth rates in Africa, disaffiliation in Europe
What happened
Pew Research Center demographic projections show a Christian population that has shifted southward for at least a century and is expected to continue doing so. In 1910, Europe was home to roughly two-thirds of the world's Christians, with North America a distant second; by the early 21st century, nearly half of the world's Christians already lived in Africa and the Latin America-Caribbean region combined, driven by higher birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa and by widespread Christian disaffiliation across Western Europe. Pew's projections estimate that by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa alone will be home to nearly four in ten of the world's Christians, up from less than two percent in 1910, while Europe and North America together will hold only about a quarter of the global total.
Why it matters
This reversal means the demographic and, increasingly, theological center of a religion born in the Middle East and long associated with European institutions has moved to regions that were themselves once primarily mission fields, a shift with consequences for church leadership, doctrine, and global Christian politics that are still unfolding.
How we know
Pew Research Center's Global Christianity demographic studies draw on census data, surveys, and church membership records from around the world to build population estimates and projections across regions and time periods.
Sources
- Pew Research Center. Christianity Poised to Continue Its Southward March · General sourcepewresearch.org · Cited as a "reference" source (no stronger domain match). · Link is live and its text matches the event's key terms (Jul 2026)
- Pew Research Center. How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020 · General sourcepewresearch.org · Cited as a "reference" source (no stronger domain match). · Link is live and its text matches the event's key terms (Jul 2026)
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Part of a timelineHistory of Christianity28 events · A crucified Jewish teacher, a persecuted sect that became an empire's official religion, and two thousand years of councils, schisms, and missions that carried it to every continentView all →